The Chief Commenting 2021: Is the global economy turning Point accelerating?

In 2020, countries are struggling with epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery. Will the world economy fare well in 2021?

Several leading experts interviewed by China News Service analyzed the opportunities and challenges facing the world economy in the post-epidemic period.

The pandemic is having a profound impact on the world economy.

Cheng Shi, chief economist at ICBC International, said in the short term, COVID-19 is like pressing the "pause button" for the entire world, with the world economy in free fall in 2020, making it the worst year for a synchronised global recession in a century.

On the other hand, there is new hope in these difficult times. In the long run, the COVID-19 epidemic has pressed the "fast forward" button for the whole world.

A series of positive changes are slowly emerging, and the inflection point of the global economy is accelerating.

China minsheng banking chief researcher WenBin said that as countries in terms of fiscal and monetary policies help to keep the basic requirements, at the same time, while the multinational city sealing measures were taken, production supply is affected, but the capacity still exists, in addition, if in 2021 the new vaccine widely available, countries will further open its economy, the economy will be further active, on the premise of demand is relatively stable, this year the global economic situation is more optimistic.

"Due to the impact of the epidemic, the expansion of global debt is accelerating. In 2021, governments, companies and individuals are likely to face debt pressure, which is a potential risk that deserves our vigilance."

Wen Bin stressed.

In 2021, new trends will emerge or continue.

First, in the post-epidemic era, the government will play a bigger role in the economy and society, said Xu Xitao, chief economist of Deloitte China.

Second, traditional industries will have a greater sense of urgency to embrace the new economy.

This trend has already begun in 2020 and will continue for years to come.

Third, the epidemic has increased distrust among countries, so reducing it in 2021 is a challenge for countries.

In addition, it will be interesting to see whether global policy makers have the courage to gradually withdraw the extraordinary means of the epidemic once the economy begins to recover in 2021, Xu said.

At present, the world's major banks are implementing ultra-loose monetary policies, said Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst at China Merchants Securities. "If the policy changes and turns beyond expectations, the investment with high valuation on easy liquidity may be affected," he said.

Xie believes that in 2021, loose monetary policy and synchronous recovery of the global economy will have a significant impact on the expansion of aggregate demand, and the supply and demand contradiction of commodities will be further highlighted.

"So the theme of rising commodity prices is one of the best investment choices for 2021."

The world economic recovery will have an impact on China's exports.

Li Qilin, deputy director and chief economist of Hongta Securities Research Institute, said many European countries and the United States have not recovered their productive end due to the repeated outbreak.

Even if the global economy can get back on track, given the potential for vaccines to contain the outbreak, global stocks are at historically low levels, especially at the retail end, and it is fairly certain that an active replenishments will follow.

Li Believes that in the short term, foreign inventory replenishment will still drive China's exports.

Together with the recovery of production in emerging markets, this mismatch between supply and demand will continue in the first half of this year and is likely to be the component driving stronger-than-expected growth in China.

Xia Le, former chief Economist of BBVA in Asia, believes that the production and use of vaccines will have a positive impact on the trend of the world economy in 2021, while the recovery of peripheral markets will also increase China's exports to other countries, bringing opportunities for China's economy.

"In 2021, with large-scale vaccination campaigns, the global epidemic is likely to abate in the spring, leading to a strong rebound in the global economy and boosting China's exports."

But at the same time, weakening foreign demand for Chinese imports of medical and protective goods, the recovery of manufacturing capacity in developed countries, and the growth and export recovery in emerging markets in Asia and Latin America will also reduce global dependence on Chinese exports to some extent, said Zhang Liqing, PWC's chief Economist for China.

Editor in charge: Ge Yan